Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Bernie Wins Indiana, Loses Revolution Narrative, Eyes CA

Bernie actually gained just a few more delegates than Hillary Clinton did from the Indiana primary. At current estimates, he actually was awarded 43 and Hillary only 37 pledged delegates. Three pledged delegates left to be awarded. 

Bernie closed the pledged delegate gap by 6 to 9 delegates; nearly 300 more to catchup to Hillary. He actually needed to win by 80% to make a substantive difference. However, he's actually going to win or at least be competitive in a number of upcoming primaries. 

If you compare the 2016 Indiana primary to the hotly contested race from 2008, less than half of the voters showed up to vote this year on the Democrat ballot. This revolution of Bernie's simply doesn't seem to exist. Hillary also didn't spend any money in Indiana.

In 2008, Hillary won a very close race in Indiana, receiving 646,235 votes to then candidate Barack Obama's 632,061. Of course, Obama opened up campaign offices there in February, long before the primary was even on the radar, closely followed by Clinton. Both candidates ended up visiting the state numerous times. This was very different than the strategy Bernie used this primary cycle. 

In the upcoming contests as this primary season heads to a close, KY and WV are fairly good states for Bernie. Oregon is more challenging demographically, but it'll likely be close. And, Montana and South Dakota are probably good states for him as well. California is a huge state with lots of delegates that shouldn't be discounted.

I'm not saying he has any chance, but, he has the capacity to go on a spree in May leading to CA in June. Discounting that reality has kept Hillary's voters on the sidelines. Hillary and Bernie voters in the remaining states need to participate in this process and vote. 

I tell people all the time not to count on the polls or count on others to vot
+Amazing World
e sensibly. You have to go and vote, otherwise, your support doesn't mean anything. 

I know personally many people who voted in the GOP primary just because they felt strongly about voting against Trump. However, that doesn't account for half the Democrat voters in Indiana voting in the Republican primary instead of pulling the Democrat ballot. With Senator Cruz dropping out of the race, there might be less of an interest in that race.

However, the California primary has funky rules. If you're a registered Republican, you can only vote in the Republican primary. The Democrat primary is open to any other registered voters. When people feel empowered, they will be more likely to go out and vote. This is crucial for both Bernie and Hillary supporters in the remaining states. 

No comments:

Post a Comment