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| +Wonderful Wildlife |
Another Republican set of debates has come and gone. The rules have changed, Senator Graham and Governor Pataki weren’t even invited, Governors Christie and Huckabee took their place in the little debate, and the actual debate seemed more manageable as a result. In general, this format, rules, venue, and set of moderators seemed to make the candidates feel more at ease and able to communicate their talking points than during any of the previous debates.
The little debate winner was clearly Senator Rick Santorum. Despite the downgrades and the departures, Christie and Huckabee seemed unable to capitalize on a smaller group of opponents. Instead, Santorum was more clearly able to differentiate himself from all three with the absence of Graham. The other interesting note was the peculiar way in which Christie bombarded and dissed democrats and Hillary Clinton in nearly every answer. Then, in his closing statement he said that Clinton couldn’t possibly bring the country together because she jokingly had said Republicans were her enemy as an answer during a previous debate.
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The larger debate was energetic, combative at times, and showed the divisions within the field along the lines of taxes, foreign policy, immigration, and experience. The clear winners were Trump and Rubio with Carson and Cruz close behind, not on substance, necessarily, but on style, consistency, and ability to connect with the Republican base today.
Kasich and Paul also made progress in taking aim at some of the frontrunners’ false claims on specific issues. Bush, again, seemed to fall flat, nearly incoherent on some issues, and unable to breakthrough on any issue that could resonate with the base. Fiorina also may have made some inroads on specific issues regarding taxes and experience. However, there doesn’t seem to be much room for her to grow her support in this field.
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Trump possibly won the debate just by standing firm on his core issue of immigration and sounding sensible on foreign policy and taxes. However, he has a tendency to overreact emotionally when challenged. He had a very childish reaction to Kasich swatting down one of his jabs as well as a snide comment to Fiorina interrupting others when nearly every candidate had done so. Doubtful Trump will experience any negatives from such reactions.
Rubio, despite a solid performance, at times seemed to stumble over his words and thoughts. There’s just a general sense of a lack of experience surrounding him. His generational arguments for his candidacy are compelling. However, Paul’s reality check on his proposals for lowering taxes and increasing defense spending without increasing deficits and debts was a very intense moment within the debate. Paul certainly has begun to find his voice in this field. With a smaller slate of candidates on the bigger stage, it’s easier for him to work in this libertarian message and ideals. It may not be a winning message, though, with the broader Republican base.
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The immigration issue still shows an intense divide within the field. Trump and Cruz were in lock step with Kasich being backed up by Bush on the practical side of the equation. This fault line within the party will be one of the most curious to watch work itself out through the primary season. Kasich, by far, has the better confidence and message on immigration than Bush.
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Ted Cruz just might be the dark horse in this field. He seems to be sitting there taking advantage at opportune moments. It’s striking to me to acknowledge his political wisdom of the fringes. I don’t think in any way he has a chance to win a general election ever, but he just might have a chance to win the Republican primary. He, above all others in this field, has not been making massive mistakes to upset the base. He has aligned himself in such a way to absorb and accumulate supporters that fall away from the current leaders and from those below him as they melt away. His McCarthy-esque style is very difficult to stomach, some of his artful language about his own history is equally difficult, but he is most poised to rise in the polls as others fall.
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Dr. Ben Carson is also an interesting candidate and not one to discount. I think his performance will likely ease any issues that may have arisen over the last week. Certainly, his ideas about foreign policy if you read them in a transcript would make many cringe, but for some people these ideas make sense, as do most of his ideas. Whenever someone appears likable, under attack, well intentioned, and just doing the best they can, some Americans tend to give that person the benefit of the doubt, especially if they believe that they share principles with that person. That is absolutely the case with Dr. Carson.
I noticed when Dr. Carson was discussing himself and the issues with the press he has had over the last few weeks that he was rolling on the balls of his feet. I believe others may have noted this as well, but it’s a tendency of someone that is narcissistic and childlike, telling a story about their greatness. This is just my own observations and interpretation of his physical behavior.
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I believe that any Democrat who thinks this Republican field isn’t serious are frankly fooling themselves. This is a serious field that is sharpening their messages and the skills to communicate those messages to voters. Also, this Republican field is incredibly fluid. These polls aren’t indicative of hardened, absolute support. It is indicative of support that is leaning toward supporting one or more types of candidates. There are simply too many candidates and too many divisions within the Republican electorate for anyone to accurately predict where this field will be after the holidays are over.
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| +Wonderful Wildlife |
On a side note, it is astounding to me that the vast majority if not all of these Republican candidates still are suggesting tax cuts for the wealthy as a way to generate higher wages for the middle class and the working classes of America. This has never ever worked in America or anywhere that I’m aware of. None of these candidates (except Governor Pataki) are in favor of increasing the minimum wage nationally. Who actually knows if this would help or hurt the economy. There are methods to increase minimum wage in such a way that doesn’t have to hurt small businesses, though. I’m just shocked that no one in this field is discussing that as a possibility.
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